Price Trend Prediction and Discount Optimization for Video Games in Online Stores Using XGBoost and Time-Series Analysis: A Data Mining Approach for Metaverse-Driven Market Insights

This research explores the application of data mining techniques, specifically XGBoost, to predict game pricing trends and optimize discount strategies within the digital gaming market. Game prices are influenced by various factors, including production costs, market demand, and promotional strategies. This study analyzes historical pricing data from multiple online stores to identify key pricing patterns and factors that influence price changes over time. The model developed in this study predicts game prices by incorporating features such as retail price, discount percentages, past price trends (lags), and other time-based features. The findings reveal that retail price and recent price trends (e.g., 7-day rolling averages) are the most influential features in predicting future prices. Additionally, discount strategies significantly impact game sales, with certain discount ranges showing higher effectiveness in driving consumer purchases. The model also demonstrates variability in prediction accuracy, particularly at higher price points, highlighting the challenges of capturing complex price fluctuations in a dynamic digital marketplace. The significance of this study extends to the Metaverse market, where pricing and the use of digital assets like non-fungible tokens (NFTs) play a critical role. The model's application could aid in optimizing pricing strategies within virtual economies, enhancing both the consumer experience and retailer profitability. Future work includes integrating additional features such as user reviews and exploring its application to Metaverse game platforms. The practical implications of this research are significant for online game retailers looking to leverage data-driven insights for more effective pricing and promotional strategies.